US Oil Prices Projected Near $3.85 as Iran Conflict Shuts Down Global Oil Routes

Analyst Patrick De Haan has projected US pump prices near $3.85 per gallon for Monday as the Iran conflict shuts down global oil routes and enters its third week. The $4 gasoline threshold remains a real possibility, De Haan cautioned, as the supply picture continues to deteriorate. The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has removed an enormous volume of oil from the global market, directly inflating prices at American gas stations.
When US and Israeli forces launched their campaign against Iran on February 28, the national gasoline average was below $3 per gallon. Three weeks of sustained military operations have pushed that figure 23% higher to $3.70, leaving households and businesses alike grappling with significantly higher transportation costs. The rate of increase has been among the steepest recorded in the US outside of declared national emergencies.
Friday’s US strike on Kharg Island targeted the nerve center of Iran’s oil processing and export network, adding new supply disruptions to an already stretched global oil market. Iran’s continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has kept approximately 20% of global oil supply inaccessible to international buyers. Brent crude ranged from $103 to $106 per barrel on Monday, while US crude held near $94 following a brief spike to $100 on Sunday.
California is at the epicenter of the domestic price crisis, with average pump prices above $5 per gallon and some Los Angeles stations posting above $8. Diesel costs for commercial transport could reach $5.05 to $5.15 per gallon nationally. White House officials have received detailed briefings from the CEOs of Exxon, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips on the worsening supply situation, with Exxon’s Darren Woods warning specifically that speculative traders risk creating a price spiral that goes beyond what supply shortages alone would justify.
Wall Street gained modestly Monday, with the S&P 500 rising about 1% following temporary oil price relief. Oil company stocks have reached all-time highs since the conflict began, as energy sector investors benefit from the elevated price environment. For the broader American economy, the Iran crisis has become a significant drag on growth, and a resolution is urgently needed to restore stability to both energy markets and consumer finances.